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Costa Mesa Speedway
Costa Mesa Speedway
National Predictions
September 28, 1996
From: Tom Simrak
also see: Speedway National Championship Press Conference, Press Conference Photos and the race! - Speedway National Championship
Another year of speedway is coming to an end October 28th. On that night, speedway, like no other motor sport, crowns it's National Champion. In one night a rider goes from contender to champion. Whatever they did all season long is thrown out the window. It's winner take all, no holds barred. In looking over the program, I tried to put it all together. I used a little intuition, calculating and of course lots of guessing. The night comes down to a few factors. Preparation, determination, equipment and of course luck of the draw. Some of the riders, although well capable of winning, they just got a bad draw and thus start in less favorable spots on the line. Other riders will only be helped by getting the good draw and the pole twice.
If we look at preparation, we have to look at the local riders. Not hat this is a cut on the northern California riders it's just that the locals will be more familiar with the track. Because of this I would rule out the northern riders. Next is determination. Some of the riders are getting close to the end of their racing career. They would love to finish on a high note. This could help riders like Bobby Schwartz, Robert Pfetzing, and Shawn McConnell. If you look at the equipment of the riders they are all close to equal. Luck will play a big part here. Who will throw a chain, heat a clutch, or just run like crap. Luck of the draw looks like it will help a few guys on race night. Some guys got a bad draw but can over come that. Greg Hancock got a bad draw but should over come it. He starts on the outside twice. This may work to his advantage because he's used to bigger tracks and therefore can ride the outside. Brad Oxley also got bad gates. He is in the number three spot twice. Fortunately for him, These are not his toughest races, until his last ride. It looks like the best draw will go to Steve Lucero. He has the pole twice and the first ride of each round. No back to back rides. In my own little fantasy world I have picked nobody to have a perfect night. The night should come down to heat 17 & 18. Lucero will need to win heat 17 to have a score of 14 points If Oxley or Hancock win in heat 18 they will also have 14 points But if Schwartz wins he could have 13 or 14 points and depending on earlier heats could also be a winner. You see, This whole thing is a crap shoot. However I did pick a winner. I think Lucero will win heat 17 and finish with 14, Oxley will win heat 18 and also finish with 14 points They will have a run off and Lucero will win the coin toss and start on the pole in the runoff. Lucero will need a great gate to hold off Oxley and WILL win his second national championship.
So now that I said all that, Here's a look at the program so you can pick for yourself. The rider listed on top has the pole. The last listed in on the wall.
Kim Gregory predicts Faria to win with a perfect 15, Lucero to finish with 14, Schwartz and Hancock 12, Hicks with 11.
(if you can't see the table above, here it is in text format...)
Heat 1 Heat 2 Heat 3 Heat 4
Steve Lucero Gary Hicks Eddie Castro Bart Bast
Bobby Schwartz Brad Oxley Mike Faria John Aden
Louis Kossuth Donnie Odom Robert Pfetzing Greg Hancock
Andy Northrup Jim Sisemore Shawn McConnell Jessie Finch
Heat 5 Heat 6 Heat 7 Heat 8
Finch Aden Faria Northrup
Lucero Castro Bast Sisemore
Hicks Schwartz Oxley McConnell
Pfetzing Odom Kossuth Hancock
Heat 9 Heat 10 Heat 11 Heat 12
Odom McConnell Sisemore Finch
Hancock Hicks Pfetzing Northrup
Lucero Bast Kossuth Castro
Faria Schwartz Aden Oxley
Heat 13 Heat 14 Heat 15 Heat 16
Oxley Schwartz Hancock Pfetzing
McConnell Finch Kossuth Odom
Aden Sisemore Castro Northrup
Lucero Faria Hicks Bast
Heat 17 Heat 18 Heat 19 Heat 20
Lucero Pfetzing Kossuth Hicks
Sisemore Schwartz McConnell Aden
Bast Oxley Finch Faria
Castro Hancock Odom Northrup
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